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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum goes after win No. 11 this evening when the San Francisco Giants open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park.
Lincecum has not received a decision in either of his last two outings, but is 10-4 on the season with a 3.12 earned run average. He went eight innings in Arizona on Sunday, but did not factor in the decision of his team's 3-2 win, as he allowed two runs and nine hits. He also struck out five and his 143 punchouts are six short of Philadelphia ace Roy Halladay's National League lead.
The NL's reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner was roughed up by the Dodgers two starts ago, surrendering five runs in 4 2/3 innings. However, he is 4-1 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 3.54 ERA in eight starts.
Lincecum will be trying to get the Giants back on track tonight after the team was held to one hit in Thursday's finale to Florida, a 5-0 loss that also saw rookie Buster Posey's impressive 21-game hitting streak come to an end.
"I had fun with it," Posey, hitting an NL-best .427 in July, said. "I concentrated on winning ballgames as much as possible, but I guess, in a way, it's kind of nice that the attention will go back to that instead of the streak."
The Giants have still won six of eight and are 3 1/2 games back of San Diego in the National League West, while holding a 1 1/2 game edge on the Philadelphia Phillies for the wild card.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, may have hurt its division chances this week, losing the final two games of its three-game set with first-place San Diego. The Dodgers fell 3-2 on Thursday and now sit seven games back of the Padres.
James Loney homered in the loss for the Dodgers, while starter Vicente Padilla allowed two runs on four hits over four innings.
"Padilla wasn't his usual self. He was struggling and when I say struggling, he was fighting for it today," said Los Angeles manager Joe Torre. "He used up a lot of pitches early."
Getting the call this evening will be righty Carlos Monasterios, who gets another shot at the rotation. Monasterios was impressive against the Mets on Saturday, scattering six hits over five scoreless innings, but did not factor in the decision of his team's 3-2 win.
Monasterios has been shuffled between the rotation and bullpen this season and is 3-2 on the year with a 3.30 ERA.
Los Angeles has won six of nine from the Giants this season.
<< Yankees open key set with Rays; A-Rod tries again for 600th homer
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in
baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New
York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana
Field.
Ro
<< Tigers hope to stop road skid in clash with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are quickly falling out of contention in
the American League Central. Tonight, they try to put the brakes on their 10-
game road losing streak when they open a three-game series against the Boston
Red Sox a
<< Blue Jays seek fourth straight victory in opener with Indians
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays take aim at their fourth straight win
this evening when they open a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians
at Rogers Centre.
Toronto started its six-game homestand in impressive fashion, as i
<< Tigers bring up Frazier; designate Larish for assignment
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have purchased the contract
of outfielder Jeff Frazier from Triple-A Toledo and opened a roster spot for
the slugger by designating infielder Jeff Larish for assignment.
Frazier was hitti
Royals continue set with Orioles in Kansas City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope a flurry of changes can help
lead to more results like the team produced on Thursday.
The revamped club will set its sights on a second straight victory over the
Kansas City Royals, who'll be out
Twins return home to face Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a wildly successful road trip, the surging
Minnesota Twins return to Target Field this evening to play the first of three
consecutive matchups with the Seattle Mariners.
The Twins are back home after going 6-1 on
Division leaders square off in Cincinnati >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get
together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading
Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at
Great American Ba
2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Linebackers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are free to roam the middle of the
field, looking to lay the lumber on the ball-carriers and receivers that dare
to enter their domain. The job of the linebacker is to be instinctual, to be in
the right
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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