Leafs' Kadri in for some heavy lifting

Hockey Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nothing says pressure like holding the weight of a Stanley Cup-starved city on your shoulders.

But regardless of how you look at it - fortunately or unfortunately - that is the reality for Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri.

The 19-year-old London native will be given every opportunity this summer to shed his penciled-in status on coach Ron Wilson's roster in exchange for a permanent position on the blue and white.

To do so, Kadri will not only have to bulk up - despite already adding 15 pounds of muscle this offseason - and improve his defensive play, he will need to grow a thick skin in order to survive in this hockey-crazed market.

And it certainly won't be an easy thing to do after the Boston Bruins nabbed highly touted prospect Tyler Seguin with Toronto's second overall pick in this year's draft, leaving Kadri as the young messiah in a devout hockey Mecca.

Luke Schenn, the Leafs' fifth overall pick in 2008, once wore this crown, but the expectations of a sturdy stay-at-home defender are modest in comparison to a dynamic offensive juggernaut.

While it might be early to group Kadri under the "dynamic offensive juggernaut" umbrella, his performance up-to-date has certainly warranted heightened expectations.

After nearly cracking the Leafs' roster out of training camp a season ago, Kadri returned to his junior team, the Ontario Hockey League's London Knights, and lit the league on fire.

He finished tied for fourth in scoring with 93 points in 56 games, while racking up another 27 in 12 playoff games and earning a spot on Canada's World Junior team.

The silky-smooth forward also brings along a strong pedigree, having been pumped out of Dale Hunter's hockey machine in London.

Hunter breeds professionalism, respect and responsibility - all culminating factors that have helped transform Kadri from a skill player into a complete player.

Just take a look at the likes of Corey Perry and Dave Bolland, two flashy forwards in London who parlayed the hard-knock lessons of Hunter into NHL success and Stanley Cup rings.

That's not to say Kadri will follow the fate of the two former Knights, but it does speak volumes to the type of player that Kadri can become: an in your face, pain-in-the-you-know-what, point-producing competitor.

Toronto general manager Brian Burke recently said to the National Post that Kadri could potentially be to the Leafs what Matt Duchene was to the Colorado Avalanche last season.

While that would be ideal, it would not be surprising to see him start the season with the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League.

Burke gave the same treatment to Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan in Anaheim and assigned Tyler Bozak for AHL duty last year despite his impressive audition at training camp.

The bottom line is that Kadri will have to earn a spot and prove that he can be a consistent contributor on a club in dire need of a significant resurgence.

If all goes to plan, Kadri will be celebrating his 20th birthday on the eve of the kickoff to the 2011 campaign as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Suiting up against the rival Montreal Canadiens - his favorite team growing up - on opening night would be icing on the cake.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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