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05/21/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Favorites of -180 or more are 61-35 through the first six weeks of the baseball season. That's a solid 64% clip, a higher mark than all but one major league club.
However, when a team is favored by such a high price, it leaves very little room for error. Only one squad has given its followers a positive return on investment - the defending World Series champion Yankees.
Joe Girardi's club is 10-1 when favored by 180 or more, with the only defeat coming at the hands of the Angels back on April 14. That .909 winning percentage computes to plus $805 for every $100 wagered. Not a bad way to increase one's bankroll in a short amount of time.
Still, wagering on heavy favorites not named the Yankees has been a colossal failure. It's an angle that might be the worst betting strategy in all of sports.
From opening night through May 20, those brave souls who wagered on every single favorite of -180 or higher (not named the New York Yankees) are down over $2,257. That figure is not a misprint and even if New York's totals are included, the deficit still remains in the red at minus $1,452 for every $100 wagered. Astronomical numbers for just six weeks of action.
Two teams that helped those figures grow have been Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs.
The Twins were favored by -180 or more five times this season with just one victory over Kansas City on April 17. Minnesota proceeded to lose to the Royals the following night at -182, and then four days later to Cleveland at -195. In addition, the Twins failed twice vs. Baltimore at -202 and -223. Their five- game total stands at minus $702.
The Cubs have been even worse, down $894 in six contests with a 1-5 overall record. Three of their five losses came against the Pirates at -212, -199 and -190, while the other two defeats came at the hands of Houston and Washington.
BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS
There have been 56 National League games so far with a favorite of -180 or higher and the totals aren't pretty. The overall won-loss record is solid at 34-22 but each gambler who wagered on every single betting choice is down $1,441. Heavy favorites in the American League have fared much better at minus only $11, primarily due to the Yankees' dominance over the rest of the league.
To show how hard it is to be on the positive side of the ledger, take a look at Philadelphia. The NL East-leading Phillies are winning 75% of their -180 or higher opportunities, but the folks who wagered on all 12 of those games are still losing money at minus $20.
Breaking the numbers down even further, National League favorites of -200 or more have lost the most money at minus-$1,040. The top three money burners include St. Louis at -321 vs. Houston, Philadelphia at -310 against the Pirates earlier this week and Los Angeles at -281 vs. Pittsburgh.
Senior Circuit teams have won 13 of 20 games as -180 to -199 favorites but once again the total money lost is in the red at minus $401.
In the American League, favorites of -200 or greater are up $303, while the betting choices between -180 and -199 are down $314.
What's most interesting about these totals is how different this season has started compared to last year. Right before the first Interleague contest was played on May 22, 2009, there were only 48 games where one team was favored by at least -180, exactly half the total of 2010.
At this point last season, the Yankees were huge winners as well bringing home $353 for every $100 wagered. The Bronx Bombers were involved in 13 of the 48 games. Take away New York from the equation and that leaves just 35 matchups with a betting favorite of -180 or more compared to 85 in 2010.
Why has this trend been so popular this year? That's a difficult question to answer considering how poorly heavy favorites have fared. Bettors probably feel more confident when they see an extremely high line and they take solace in the fact the team can't possibly lose. Unfortunately, this is not college football, where the top squads falter just once per 12 games; this is baseball, a sport where the best teams lose 40% of the time.
Remember these figures the next time you think about wagering on a high-priced favorite the rest of the season.
<< Zheng, Dulgheru will decide Warsaw champion
Warsaw, Poland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Zheng Jie of China and
reigning champion Alexandra Dulgheru of Romania will square off in Saturday's
final at the $600,000 Warsaw Open, a final French Open tune-up.
Zheng handled Hung
<< Serbia trims roster to 24 players
Belgrade, Serbia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Radomir Antic trimmed Serbia's World Cup
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squad has to be submitted June 1.
Forwards Dejan Lekic and Miralem Sulejmani, mi
<< Subway Series commences as Yanks visit Mets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Apple bragging rights between the New York Yankees and
Mets will be on the line again in the 2010 version of the Subway Series, which
kicks off Friday night at Citi Field.
The Mets will play host for this three-game se
<< Red Sox vie to continue recent success against Phils
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Interleague play commences around the major leagues this
weekend, and no team could be happier than the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox will take their winning ways to Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park
tonight in the opener of
It is time to bring Strasburg to DC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Of all the surprises through the first month-and-a-half of
the major league season, nothing may be more shocking than the fact that the
Washington Nationals are .500 heading into this weekend's slate of interleague
play.
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No African nation has ever reached the
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Nigeria would be the odds on favorite to do it.
With players like Sunday Oliseh, Vi
Breeders' Cup ultimate goal for Mine That Bird >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne
Lukas has 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in his barn, the
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Breeder
Nats release Taveras >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals released Willy
Taveras on Friday, six days after designating the outfielder for assignment.
Washington signed the 28-year-old to a minor-league deal prior to the season.
Tavera
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
The 2008 NFL betting lines season is almost upon us! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join sportbook today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLIII and beyond!
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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