PapaJohn's.com Bowl serves up Gamecocks against Huskies

NCAA Football Betting Lines

01/02/2010 - Birmingham, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Making just their fourth bowl appearance ever, the Connecticut Huskies will take on the South Carolina Gamecocks this Saturday afternoon in the PapaJohns.com bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

The Gamecocks stormed out of the gates this season with five wins in their first six games, including four in a row. However, the team eventually hit the tough part of its SEC schedule and suffered losses in four of its next five matchups, before closing out the regular season with a 34-17 victory over Clemson. Two of those setbacks were hard fought losses to SEC powerhouses Alabama (20-6) and Florida (24-14). This will be the second straight bowl game for South Carolina and the 15th overall in school history. Unfortunately the Gamecocks have not enjoyed much success, posting a mere 4-10 mark in those contests.

The Huskies are not as seasoned when its comes to playing in the postseason, participating in just three bowls prior to this year's contest. UConn is however, 2-1 in those games, and that includes a 38-20 victory over Buffalo in last year's International Bowl. This year the Huskies had to overcome tragedy along with a grueling Big East schedule. The Huskies began the season with four wins in their first six games, and that includes a 38-25 victory over Louisville on October 17th. However, after that win the Huskies endured a tremendous loss when cornerback Jasper Howard was killed on campus. UConn could not overcome the loss of one of their own initially and stumbled through three straight losses. Fortunately UConn was able to right the ship, winning its last three contests, including a thrilling, 33-30 overtime decision at Notre Dame.

This will be the first-ever meeting between South Carolina and Connecticut on the gridiron.

Steve Spurrier coached some prolific offensive attacks when he was at Florida but at South Carolina coach Spurrier's team has rarely been considered a juggernaut with the football. That remains true for this year's squad., as South Carolina averaged just 21.8 ppg and did not do much on the ground or through the air. The Gamecocks are only churning out 125.0 ypg on the ground on 3.7 yards per attempt. Leading the ground attack is Kenny Miles, but he has rushed for just 602 yards and one score, while Brian Maddox has contributed 305 yards and a team-best five rushing touchdowns. South Carolina has enjoyed a little more success with its passing attack, but still the Gamecocks are not a threat to beat a team through the air. Stephen Garcia has led the team under center, completing 56.6 percent of his throws, with 2,733 yards and 17 scores against nine interceptions. Garcia does not have a go-to receiver at his disposal, as Alshon Jeffery has been the top option for Garcia, but he has hauled in just 43 receptions for 735 yards and six touchdowns.

The reason South Carolina was so competitive this season is mainly due to the play of the defense, which held the opposition to just 20.4 ppg. The Gamecocks allowed just 137.0 ypg on the ground on a mere 3.8 yards per carry, and against the pass the team was even better, limiting opponents to just 167.7 ypg through the air. The Gamecocks only collected 16 takeaways during the regular season, but the team did put adequate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, racking up 27 sacks on the season. The defense also stepped up when it mattered most, as the team held opponents to just 37 percent on third down chances, and allowed just 19 touchdowns in 36 red zone chances for opposing teams. Eric Norwood and Cliff Matthews collected seven sacks apiece during the regular season, while Shaq Wilson led the squad with 78 tackles.

The Huskies rumble into this contest averaging a stout 32.1 ppg, and the success is largely due to the team's performance on the ground, as UConn is churning out 172.8 ypg. Out of the 44 touchdowns scored by this unit, 29 have come via the run. Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon formed a dangerous duo for the Huskies, as Todman amassed 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Dixon rumbled for 967 yards and 13 scores. The ground game overshadowed the team's lack of success through the air, as UConn struggled to find consistency with its passing attack. Zach Frazer played in seven games this season and was nothing more than mediocre, completing just 54.3 percent of his throws for 1,354 yards. Frazer threw nine touchdowns on the season, but also tossed nine interceptions. Marcus Easley was clearly the top target on the roster, finishing with 44 receptions, for 853 yards and eight TDs.

The play of the offense lightened the load for UConn's defense that was inconsistent at times this year. The Huskies are allowing 25.0 ppg, and while that is not terrible, it is nothing to write home about either. The defense is surrendering 137.6 ypg on the ground, but is holding teams to just 3.8 yards per tote. What really hurt this unit was its inability to stop the pass, as opponents torched UConn for 244.8 ypg through the air and also threw 17 touchdowns against this secondary. Fortunately this defense was able to rely on its big play ability, as the team collected 23 turnovers, while also putting solid pressure on the quarterback, with 30 sacks. Lawrence Wilson was one of the top performers for this defense throughout the season, and comes into this game with 136 tackles and 10 TFLs. However, he was not the lone bright spot, as Lindsey Witten also had a solid campaign, grabbing 13 TFLs and 11.5 sacks, both of which were team-highs.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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